1998—2016年中国PM2.5浓度变化对气温的影响研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2022.03.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探讨“人类活动—大气污染—气温变化”的关系反应链, 从宏观尺度阐明PM_2.5浓度变化对气温的影响, 利用1951—2017年中国822个气象站点日最高气温、日最低气温和日平均气温资料, 1998—2016年中国年均PM_2.5浓度遥感图像数据、地表太阳辐射数据, 1998—2016年中国各省(区)逐年能源消耗总量、地区生产总值及夜间灯光指数数据, 运用Slope趋势变化分析方法与相关性分析法, 分析了中国PM_2.5浓度的变化趋势及其影响因素。结果表明: 1998—2016年中国黄淮海区、东北区PM_2.5浓度上升速度最快, 分别为1.42μg·m^-3·a^-1、1.44μg·m^-3·a^-1, 而其他地区相对变化不明显; 黄淮海区PM_2.5浓度平均值高, 地表太阳辐射降低, 对该区年最高气温有明显的抑制作用, 但对年平均气温和年最低气温的影响不明显。东北区PM_2.5浓度增长速率较高, 但年平均浓度值低, 该地区有着较高的水热配合度, PM_2.5对年最高气温的抑制作用不明显; 能源消耗总量与PM_2.5浓度呈显著的正相关。

关键词: 人类活动, PM_2.5, 大气污染, 气温

Abstract:

Based on daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily average temperature data from 1951 to 2017 from China's 822 weather stations, remote sensing image data for annual average PM_2.5 concentrations in China, surface solar radiation data, annual energy consumption, GDP (gross domestic product) and the night lights index data during 1998-2016, using the slope trend analysis and correlation analysis, the changing trend of PM_2.5 concentrations in China and its impact factors were analyzed.The results show that the PM_2.5 concentrations in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the northeastern part of China have the largest increase rates i.e.1.42 μg·m^-2·a^-1 and 1.44 μg·m^-2·a^-1 from 1998 to 2016, respectively, while those in the other regions have no obvious change.The average PM_2.5 concentration in the Huang-Huai-Hai region is high, which reduces the local surface solar radiation and significantly inhibits the local annual maximum temperature, but has no obvious influence on the annual average and minimum temperatures.In northeast China, the annual average PM_2.5 concentration despite showing a relatively large increase rate is far lower than that in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, and a high hydrothermal coordination degree induces an inconspicuous inhibition effect of PM_2.5 on the annual maximum temperature.Besides, the total energy consumption is positively correlated with PM_2.5 concentration.

Key words: Human activities, PM_2.5, Air pollution, Air temperature

中图分类号:

X513

肖袁俊,李保山,宋文丹,程勇翔,黄敬峰. 1998—2016年中国PM_2.5浓度变化对气温的影响研究[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2022, 38(3): 85-92.

Yuan-jun XIAO,Bao-shan LI,Wen-dan SONG,Yong-xiang CHENG,Jing-feng HUANG. The impact of concentration change of PM_2.5 on air temperature in China during 1998-2016[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2022, 38(3): 85-92.

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名称	定义	单位
年最高气温(T_Xx)	一年中日最高气温的最大值	℃
年最低气温(T_Nn)	一年中日最低气温的最小值	℃
年平均气温(${\bar T}$_mean)	一年中日平均气温的平均值	℃
日最低气温年平均值(${\bar T}$_min)	一年中日最低气温的平均值	℃
日最高气温年平均值(${\bar T}$_max)	一年中日最高气温的平均值	℃

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