主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (5): 8-.doi:

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

1961—2009年辽河流域气候变化特征及其对水资源的影响

孙凤华1 李丽光1 梁红2 袁健3  路爽2   

  1. 1.中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所，辽宁 沈阳 110016；2.沈阳市气象台，辽宁 沈阳 110168；3.辽宁省人工影响天气办公室，辽宁 沈阳 110016
  • 出版日期:2012-10-31 发布日期:2012-10-31

Climate change characteristics and its impacts on water resources in the Liaohe basin from 1961 to 2009

SUN Feng-hua1 LI Li-guang1 LIANG Hong2 YUAN Jian3 LU Shuang2   

  1. 1. Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110016, China; 2. Shenyang Meteorological Service, Shenyang 110168, China; 3. Weather Modification Office in Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110016, China
  • Online:2012-10-31 Published:2012-10-31

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摘要： 辽河流域是我国七大流域之一，长期以来一直存在水资源严重不足的问题。采用1961—2009年辽河流域境内水文、气象观测数据，研究气象、水文要素历史变化特征，并采用同期和滞后相关分析，建立气象要素与水文要素的最优相关关系。结果表明：辽河流域气候变暖明显，增温幅度远高于全球和中国的同期增温幅度；辽河流域降水量增减趋势不明显，总体上为略减少趋势，但存在明显的少—多—少—多—少5个阶段性变化。辽河流域蒸发量为略减少趋势，春季、夏季是蒸发量较大季节；辽河流域近50年来径流量为减少趋势，经历了偏多—偏少—偏多—偏少4个阶段的变化，最近的1996—2009年经历了年径流量最少阶段，平均年径流量仅为16.2亿 m3，只达到多年平均径流量的58 %、径流量最多年代的32 %。7月、8月是流量最为集中的月份，2个月流量就占到全年的50.24 %，超过全年的一半；辽河流域降水量与径流量有较好的相关关系。在年尺度，径流量与铁岭、法库等周边地区相关系数基本达到0.6左右；在日尺度，日降水量与降水发生后第二日流量相关程度最好，在所有等级上两者相关系数均在0.7以上，在日降水量大于等于25 mm等级上，相关系数最高可达到0.85。

关键词: 气候变化, 水资源, 影响, 辽河流域

Abstract: The Liaohe river basin is one of seven major basins in China, and it has always a serious shortage of water resources. Based on the hydrological and meteorological data from 1961 to 2009, the evolution characteristics were analyzed. The optimal relationship between meteorological elements and hydrological elements were established by the same period and lagged correlation analysis. The results indicate that the warming is obvious in the Liaohe river basin and its amplitude is higher in this basin than in the globe and in China. The variation of precipitation is not obvious in the Liaohe river basin. In general, precipitation is in a slightly decreasing trend. However, there are five obvious fluctuated phases for precipitation variation, i.e. less-more-less-more-less. Evaporation amount is also in a slightly decreasing trend, and so is the runoff in the Liaohe river basin. Evaporation amount is high in spring and summer. There are four fluctuated phases for runoff variations i.e. more-less-more-less. The annual runoff is the least during 1996 to 2009, and the average is only 1.62×108 m3, which is 58% of the mean annual runoff and 32% of  the largest inter-decadal runoff. Runoff concentrates in July and August and amount of which accounts for 50.24% of the amount in whole year. There is a good relationship between precipitation and runoff in the Liaohe river basin. For the annual scale, their correlation coefficients in Tieling and Faku both reach 0.60. For the diurnal scale, the correlation relationship is significant between the current precipitation and runoff on the second day. For all levels, both correlation coefficients exceed 0.70. The highest correlation coefficient could reach 0.85 when the diurnal precipitation is equal or exceeds 25 mm.

Key words: Climate change, Water resources, Impacts, The Liaohe river basin