辽河流域气候变化及对径流影响预估与评估分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2022.03.019

Abstract

Abstract:

The Liaohe river basin is a region with significant climate warming, and the warming amplitude is higher than that over the whole world and China.At the same time, it is also an area with relatively scarce water resources and large demand, so the impact of climate change on water resources is more worthy of attention.Based on long-term historical observational meteorological and hydrological data and climate change forecast data under different scenarios, the relationship between climate change and runoff was established, and the possible impact of future climate change on runoff was estimated, providing the scientific basis for the decision-making of coping with climate change in Liaohe river basin.The results showed that air temperature has a continuous upward trend, and precipitation has no obvious trend of increase or decrease, but there are periodic changes from 1961 to 2020.There is a good correlation between precipitation and runoff in Liaohe river basin, and with relatively consistent long-term trends and characteristics, the correlation between annual precipitation and runoff can reach more than 0.6.The correlation analysis between daily precipitation and runoff shows that the correlation coefficient between the two can be as high as 0.85 on the next day after the occurrence of precipitation and the heavy rain grade (i.e.daily precipitation ≥25 mm).The results of the sensitivity test and model simulation test show that runoff has an obvious response to climate change, and the increase (decrease) of runoff is most obvious when precipitation increases (decreases) and temperature decreases (increases).Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the temperature increase trend is the most obvious, and the future runoff also has a significant increasing trend.Under the RCP2.6 emission scenario, the temperature increase is the smallest, and the future runoff also shows no obvious increase or decrease trend.Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the temperature increase is in the middle, and the future runoff is in a decreasing trend.

Key words: Runoff, Climate change, Prediction and assessment

CLC Number:

P461⁺.5

Feng-hua SUN,Ming-yan LIU,Qing-fei ZHAI. Analysis of prediction and assessment of climate change and its impact on runoff in the Liaohe river basin[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2022, 38(3): 156-161.

Figures/Tables 7

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站名	站号	经度/°E	纬度/°N	海拔高度/m
彰武	54236	122.53	42.42	79.4
昌图	54243	124.12	42.78	165.1
康平	54244	123.33	42.75	118.6
法库	54245	123.40	42.50	97.8
铁岭	54249	123.82	42.30	85.4
西丰	54252	124.75	42.73	196.4
开原	54254	124.05	42.53	98.2
辽中	54332	122.72	41.52	12.9
新民	54333	122.83	41.98	30.7
台安	54336	122.43	41.38	7.4
盘锦	54338	122.02	41.18	3.8
大洼	54470	122.07	40.98	3.9

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Analysis of prediction and assessment of climate change and its impact on runoff in the Liaohe river basin

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