2016—2021年乌海市气象条件变化对呼吸系统疾病的影响研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.02.006

气象与环境学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 47-55.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.02.006

• 论文 • 上一篇

2016—2021年乌海市气象条件变化对呼吸系统疾病的影响研究

殷宁潞^1,3, 李俊林², 王式功³

1. 乌海市气象局, 内蒙古乌海 016000;
2. 东方电气风电股份有限公司, 四川成都 610225;
3. 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/环境气象与健康研究院, 四川成都 610225

收稿日期:2024-06-13 修回日期:2024-11-26 发布日期:2025-06-20
通讯作者: 王式功,男,教授,E-mail:wangsg@cuit.edu.cn。 E-mail:wangsg@cuit.edu.cn
作者简介:殷宁潞,女,1992生,工程师,主要从事气象服务方面研究,E-mail:387990190@qq.com。
基金资助:
内蒙古自治区引导性创新基金项目(nmqxydcx202223)资助。

Study on the impact of changes in meteorological conditions on respiratory diseases in Wuhai city,2016-2021

YIN Ninglu^1,3, LI Junlin², WANG Shigong³

1. Wuhai Meteorological Bureau, Wuhai 016000, China;
2. Dongfang Electric Wind Power Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610225, China;
3. School of Atmospheric Sciences/Institute of Environmental Meteorology and Health, Chengdu University of Information Science and Technology, Chengdu 610225, China

Received:2024-06-13 Revised:2024-11-26 Published:2025-06-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 选用2016—2021年乌海市呼吸系统疾病逐日就诊数据和气象要素资料,采用Spearman相关分析确定了气温为该地区呼吸系统疾病的高影响气象因子,通过广义相加模型(GAM)和分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)估算气温与就诊人数的归因分值(AFs),并确定敏感人群。结果表明:低温和高温均对该地区呼吸系统疾病就诊人数产生即时影响,但以低温效应为主,且低温对人体的影响持续时间更长。气温对总人群的AFs峰值区域为-10~7℃,该范围内的AFs占比为50.2%。季节转换时期气温的骤升、骤降与呼吸系统就诊人数增多关系密切,气温日较差为8~16℃时,对就诊人数存在显著的即时影响。该地区女性是受气温影响较大的敏感人群。

关键词: 气温, 广义相加模型, 分布滞后非线性模型, 归因分值

Abstract: Daily respiratory disease consultation records and meteorological data from Wuhai City from 2016 to 2021 were analyzed to assess the influence of meteorological conditions on respiratory health.Spearman correlation analysis was used to identify temperature as a high-impact meteorological factor of respiratory diseases in the region.Generalized additive models (GAMs) and distributional lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) were employed to estimate the attributable fractions (AFs) of temperature to the number of consultation scores (AFs) and to identify vulnerable population groups.The results showed that both low and high temperatures had an immediate effect on respiratory disease visits,with low temperatures having a more dominant and prolonged impact.The peak AF range for the total population was -10 ~ 7 ℃,accounting for 50.2% of total AFs.Sudden temperature changes during seasonal transitions were significantly associated with increased respiratory disease visits,and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) of 8~16 ℃ had a significant immediate effect.Females were found to be more sensitive to temperature fluctuations.

Key words: Air temperature, Generalized additive model, Distributional lag nonlinear model, Attributable fraction

中图分类号:

殷宁潞, 李俊林, 王式功. 2016—2021年乌海市气象条件变化对呼吸系统疾病的影响研究[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2025, 41(2): 47-55.

YIN Ninglu, LI Junlin, WANG Shigong. Study on the impact of changes in meteorological conditions on respiratory diseases in Wuhai city,2016-2021[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2025, 41(2): 47-55.

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2016—2021年乌海市气象条件变化对呼吸系统疾病的影响研究

Study on the impact of changes in meteorological conditions on respiratory diseases in Wuhai city,2016-2021

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