辽宁丹东蓝莓花期霜冻害致灾风险分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.04.016

气象与环境学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 136-145.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.04.016

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辽宁丹东蓝莓花期霜冻害致灾风险分析

董海涛¹, 李如楠¹, 单璐璐¹, 孟鑫¹, 房一禾^2,3,4

1. 丹东市气象局, 辽宁丹东 118000;
2. 辽宁省气候中心, 辽宁沈阳 110166;
3. 盘锦国家气候观象台, 辽宁盘锦 124000;
4. 东北冷涡研究重点开放实验室, 辽宁沈阳 110166

收稿日期:2024-03-22 修回日期:2024-05-29 发布日期:2026-01-10
通讯作者: 房一禾,男,高级工程师,E-mail:49954570@qq.com。 E-mail:49954570@qq.com
作者简介:董海涛,男,1980年生,高级工程师,主要从事农业气候研究,E-mail:165175634@qq.com。
基金资助:
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J008)和丹东市指导性科技计划项目(DD2023037)共同资助。

Risk analysis of frost damage in Dandong blueberry flowering period in Liaoning Province

DONG Haitao¹, LI Runan¹, SHAN Lulu¹, MENG Xi¹, FANG Yihe^2,3,4

1. Dandong City Bureau of Meteorology, Dandong 118000, China;
2. Climate Center of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110166, China;
3. Panjin National Climate Observatory, Panjin 124000, China;
4. Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research, Shenyang 110166, China

Received:2024-03-22 Revised:2024-05-29 Published:2026-01-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1991—2020年丹东地区4个气象观测站(以及周边3个气象观测站)蓝莓花期的气象监测资料,采用数理统计方法,分析了最低气温时序变化特点,将蓝莓花期日最低气温T_min≤1 ℃作为蓝莓发生霜冻害等级指标,由年霜冻害发生的气候概率,标准差、发生频率和强度4个参量,构建蓝莓花期霜冻害致灾风险指数,并进行评估。结果表明: 1991—2020年丹东蓝莓花期最低气温平均值的气候倾向率整体上呈上升趋势,平均每10 a上升0.04 ℃,其中凤城和宽甸地区呈下降趋势,而振安区和东港站为上升趋势,北部山区发生霜冻害风险更高; 1991—2020年丹东蓝莓花期发生霜冻害天数呈增多趋势,其中轻度等级霜冻害天数最多为19.5 d(中度1.0 d,重度0.8 d),且增多趋势最为显著,平均每10 a增加0.2 d,主要发生在东北部山区的宽甸地区;1991—2020年丹东蓝莓花期发生霜冻害的气候概率,北部山区(概率范围70.0%～86.6%)明显大于南部沿海地区(3.5%～10.1%),在空间分布特征上同霜冻害发生频率和强度基本一致;丹东蓝莓花期霜冻害致灾风险指数可分为无、低、中、高和极高风险5个等级,极高和高风险区域主要集中在宽甸大部分地区和凤城北部;中风险区域主要集中在凤城大部分地区;低风险区域主要集中在凤城南部和东港北部,而无风险区域主要集中在振安区和东港东部区域,这与实际蓝莓种植基地空间分布相符合。

关键词: 蓝莓花期, 霜冻, 灾害, 风险分析

Abstract: Based on the meteorological monitoring data of blueberry (Vacciniumset.Cyanococcus) flowering period in four meteorological observation stations (and three surrounding meteorological observation stations) in Dandong area from 1991 to 2020,the temporal variation characteristics of minimum temperature were analyzed by mathematical statistics method.The daily minimum temperature T_min≤1 ℃ of blueberry flowering period was taken as the index of spring frost grade of blueberry.The risk index of spring frost disaster in blueberry flowering period was constructed and evaluated by four parameters :climate probability,standard deviation,occurrence frequency and intensity of spring frost.The results showed that:The climate tendency rate of the average minimum temperature during the flowering period of Dandong blueberries in the past 30 years showed an overall upward trend,with an average increase of 0.04 ℃ every 10 years.Among them,Fengcheng and Kuandian areas showed a downward trend,while Zhen'an and Donggang stations showed an upward trend.The northern mountainous area was more conducive to the formation of spring frost.The number of spring frost days during the flowering period of Dandong blueberry in the past 30 years showed an increasing trend,among which the number of mild spring frost days was up to 19.5 d (moderate 1.0 d,severe 0.8 d),and the climate tendency rate was more moderate and severe.The increasing trend was significant,with an average increase of 0.2 d per 10 years,mainly occurring in the Kuandian area of the northeastern mountainous area.The climatic probability of spring frost in Dandong blueberry flowering period in 30 a was significantly higher in the northern mountainous area (probability range 70.0%-86.6%) than in the southern coastal area (3.5%-10.1%),and the spatial distribution characteristics were basically consistent with the frequency and intensity of spring frost.The spring frost disaster risk index of Dandong blueberry flowering period can be divided into five grades:none,low,medium,high and extremely high risk.The extremely high and high risk areas are mainly concentrated in most areas of Kuandian and northern Fengcheng.The medium-risk areas are mainly concentrated in most areas of Fengcheng ;the low-risk areas are mainly concentrated in the south of Fengcheng and the north of Donggang,while the risk-free areas are mainly concentrated in Zhen'an District and the east of Donggang,which is consistent with the spatial distribution of the actual blueberry planting base.The results of the study obtained the risk areas of different levels of blueberry flowering spring frost disaster in each region,and provided a reference for scientific response to the blueberry flowering spring frost disaster.

Key words: Blueberry flowering, Frost, Disaster, Risk analysis

中图分类号:

董海涛, 李如楠, 单璐璐, 孟鑫, 房一禾. 辽宁丹东蓝莓花期霜冻害致灾风险分析[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2025, 41(4): 136-145.

DONG Haitao, LI Runan, SHAN Lulu, MENG Xi, FANG Yihe. Risk analysis of frost damage in Dandong blueberry flowering period in Liaoning Province[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2025, 41(4): 136-145.

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辽宁丹东蓝莓花期霜冻害致灾风险分析

Risk analysis of frost damage in Dandong blueberry flowering period in Liaoning Province

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