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30 June 2020, Volume 36 Issue 3 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Multi-scale characteristics of the "7.20" heavy rainstorm event in North China Xuan LIN,Lei ZHAO,De-qing LI,Shan GU,Cheng NIU,Wei CHEN,Xiao-hang WEN,Si-hui WANG 2020, 36 (3):  1-9.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.001 Abstract ( 510 )   HTML ( 26 )   PDF (11458KB) ( 136 )   Save Multi-scale characteristics of a heavy rainstorm event from July 19 to 21, 2016 were analyzed in this study, using encrypted meteorological observations at 248 stations in North China, the temperature of a black body (TBB) retrieved from the FY-2G satellite, radiosonde data at Xingtai station, Doppler radar data in North China, and the reanalysis data from European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) with a 0.25°×0.25° resolution and from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) with a 1°×1° resolution.The results show that the South Asian High at 200 hPa is distributed from east to west, meanwhile, the background atmospheric circulation at 500 hPa is characterized by "east high and west low".Due to the block effect of a closed high pressure near the Sea of Okhotsk, upstream systems move slowly and the area in North China is trapped in a deep trough for a long time period.Such a circulation favors the formation of a stable oriented rainstorm event.In a comparison of flow fields at upper and lower altitudes, the strongest precipitation occurs within the overlying area between the right inlet area of upper-level jet and the left exit area of low-level jet, with the maximum precipitation values occurring at the windward slopes of Taihang Mountains and Yan Mountains.A center of the vertical ascending movements is located between a convergence center and a divergence center.Water vapor is transported to upper levels due to the intense suction effect, and the convective system rapidly develops in the presence of convergence of cold and warm air flows and the release of condensation latent heat during ascending movements of water vapor.A deep and stable cyclone over Hebei province is important for the formation of this heavy rainstorm event, with the lasting time exceeding 20 h of a super convection cell (>45 dBz) in Shijiazhuang on July 19.Cumulative precipitation increases mainly due to a wide effect area of the meso-scale convective system (MCS), the topographic effect of mountains, and long maintaining time of the system, which is also one of the specific characteristics of this heavy rainstorm event in comparison with another heavy rainstorm event in Beijing on July 21, 2012. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Identification of convection cells and the effect of hail suppression during a hail event Zhao-wu LIU,Shi-qin TIAN,Feng-jiao WANG,Dian-li GONG 2020, 36 (3):  10-16.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.002 Abstract ( 234 )   HTML ( 11 )   PDF (2714KB) ( 137 )   Save Based on conventional meteorological data during a hail event in the northwestern Shandong province from June 12 to 13, 2018, we analyzed the synoptic situation and physical quantity conditions for the hail formation.The results indicated that the radar echo index has an obviously decreasing trend before and after the operation of artificial hail suppression.The values of liquid water path (LWP) and echo top height index decrease by 49.9% and 37.4%, respectively.Hail probability drops from 99.3% to 28.7% after the hail suppression operation.The echo intensity, echo top height, and LWP values decrease by 10 dBz, 7 km, and 48 kg·m-2 at most, respectively.In a comparison of the development and evolution of two similar convection cells, the hail suppression operation makes echo intensity, echo top height, and LWP value of one convection cell decrease by 7 dBz, 3 km, and 11 kg·m-2, respectively, and then results in a large fluctuation in hail probability.The echo intensity and top height become higher and hail probability drops more quickly after the hail suppression.While the other convection cell without the effect of hail suppression has smaller fluctuation in radar echo indexes during the numbering period of convective cells, which further proves the positive effect of the artificial hail suppression. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Classification of synoptic circulations and spatial verification of the ECMWF model precipitation forecast over Northeast China during summer Duo QI,Tian-hua ZHANG,Cheng-wei WANG,Song-tao LIU 2020, 36 (3):  17-25.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.003 Abstract ( 252 )   HTML ( 11 )   PDF (2626KB) ( 82 )   Save Background synoptic circulations over Northeast China from May to September in 2018 were classified using a SANDRA (SAN) method, and heavy precipitation (>10 mm/24 h) forecast using the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model was spatially verified and quantitatively analyzed.Dominant background synoptic circulation over Northeast China can be classified into the North Low Disturbance (NLD) pattern, the Subtropical High Northward Shift (SHNS) pattern, the Northeast Low Vortex Disturbance (NLVD) pattern, and the Low Disturbance Eastward Shift (LDES) pattern.Heavy precipitation events occur more frequently in the presence of the former three patterns, hence we specifically analyze these precipitation events predicted by the ECMWF model.The results indicate that rainfall areas of medium-heavy precipitation events and above under the NLD pattern are generally underestimated by 45%-60%, and that of medium precipitation events is overestimated by 40% for 36 h forecast and is underestimated by 19% for the 84 h forecast.In 36 h, 60 h, and 84 h forecast, the locations of heavy precipitation are deviated by 0.19°, 0.53°, and 1.39° westward, respectively, and the average (maximum) precipitation values are underestimated by 2.9 (7.3) mm, 3.1 (8.1) mm, and 3.4 (9.4) mm, respectively.Under the SHNS pattern, the deviations between the predicted and observed precipitation areas are not always consistent in signs, the predicted rainfall locations are deviated by 0.19°, 0.53°, and 1.39° southward in 36 h, 60 h, and 84 h forecast, respectively, and weaker average and maximum precipitation values occur among 65%-72% forecast cases.While under the NLVD pattern, the predicted precipitation locations are deviated by 0.18° eastward and 0.55° southward in 36 h forecast, by 0.20° eastward and 0.58° southward in 60 h forecast, and by 0.74° eastward in 84 h forecast.In addition, for the three forecast periods, the underestimation separately reaches 3.3 mm, 3.7 mm, and 3.9 mm for average precipitation values, and 10.2 mm, 10.6 mm, and 11.6 mm for maximum precipitation values. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Impacts of meteorological factors on PM2.5 concentration in urban regions of Changzhou Zhen WANG,Wei-fen YANG,Xiang YE,Yan-ping LI,Jing XIA,Chun-yu LI,Tao HE 2020, 36 (3):  26-32.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.004 Abstract ( 251 )   HTML ( 10 )   PDF (883KB) ( 156 )   Save Variations of PM2.5 mass concentrations and meteorological factors and the impact of meteorological factors on PM2.5 concentration in Changzhou urban areas were analyzed based on observational data of airborne fine particulate matters and meteorological elements near the surface from 2016 to 2018.The results indicated that obvious seasonal variations are observed in PM2.5 mass concentrations, precipitation, relative humidity, temperature, and other meteorological factors in Changzhou urban areas, with higher values in summer and lower values in winter except for air pressure.PM2.5 concentrations have a positive correlation with relative humidity, and PM2.5 exceeding standard rates and its mean concentrations increase with the increase of relative humidity.Precipitation has a scavenging effect on PM2.5on some degree, which depends on PM2.5 concentrations before precipitation, precipitation amount and intensity.Larger precipitation amount and intensity usually result in a better scavenging effect on PM2.5.While the scavenging rate is small when PM2.5concentration is low before precipitation.PM2.5 exceeding standard rates and average concentrations are higher in presence of westerly winds than other wind directions.PM2.5 concentration has a negative correlation with wind speed.PM2.5 exceeding standard rates and average concentrations decrease with stronger wind speeds.Ground synoptic situations in Changzhou urban areas can be divided into two types.One type is characterized by low air pressure, high temperature, and low PM2.5 exceeding standard rate and average concentration, and the other type with high air pressure, low temperature, and high PM2.5 exceeding standard rate and average concentration. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Characteristics of sea-land breeze and its relationship with pollutant concentrations during winter and spring in 2017 in Zhangzhou Hong WANG,Qiu-ping ZHENG,You-wei HONG,Jian-cheng WU 2020, 36 (3):  33-40.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.005 Abstract ( 183 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (1518KB) ( 202 )   Save Based on meteorological observational data in Zhangzhou, Fujian province and the south island in 2017, sea-land breeze days were distinguished using statistical analysis and manual correction methods.In combination of synoptic situation and observed pollutant concentrations, the characteristics of sea-land breeze days and its relationship with pollutant concentrations were analyzed.The results show that the number of days with sea-land breeze in Zhangzhou is 2.2 times as large as that observed at an island station.Sea-land breeze occurs more frequently in spring and summer and less in autumn and winter.In winter, synoptic situations on the sea-land breeze days are dominated by transformed surface cold high, high-pressure rear, and warm sector ahead of front, and are accompanied by small pressure gradient, high air temperature, small wind speed, long sunshine duration, low humidity, and small cloud cover, which is unfavorable for the dilution and diffusion of pollutants.During sea-land breeze days, concentrations of all pollutants (except for O3) are 2-3 times as large as that on the systematic wind days, and particulate matter concentrations are especially high.Unlike in winter, sea-land breeze in spring contributes to high particulate matter and even higher O3, although the dominated synoptic situation and meteorological conditions in both seasons are similar to each other.All pollutant concentrations on sea-land breeze days are 1-2 times higher than that on systematic wind days, and O3 concentration is easy to exceed the standard level on sea-land breeze days.Although the annual occurrence frequency of land-sea breeze is less than 30% in Zhangzhou, its unique diurnal variation and local circulation structure have an important impact on pollutant accumulation and transport. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Characteristics of the spatial-temporal evolution of flood disasters in Heilongjiang province from 1965 to 2014 Jia-qi XU,Yong-ji ZHOU,Li-xia JIANG,Yi-na CAO,Li-feng GUO 2020, 36 (3):  41-48.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.006 Abstract ( 258 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (3137KB) ( 126 )   Save Based on monthly precipitation data of 63 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang province from 1965-2014, the flood grades (including moderate, mild, and severe floods) were calculated using Z index, regional flood index, the mathematical statistics, inverse distance weight interpolation and other methods.The temporal-spatial evolution characteristic of flood and its change trend were also analyzed in Heilongjiang province.The results show that the number of regional moderate, mild and severe flood disasters occurred in Heilongjiang province are 7, 7 and 6, respectively in recent 50 years.The precipitation climatic trend rate is 0.864 mm/a.The frequency of flood disasters demonstrates an unevenly distribution, with 104 times of moderate flood, 74 times of mild flood and 29 time of severe flood.The areas with the flood disasters happened frequently expand year by year.Meanwhile, the percentage of stations occurring flood disasters to the total stations has a significant difference year by year and shows an escalating trend.The rates of escalating trend of moderate, mild and severe floods are 1.3/10 a, 1.6/10 a and 0.85/10 a, respectively.The highest frequencies of flood disasters occurred in 1980s, 1990s and after 2010.Hegang, Yichun, Heihe and Mudanjiang regions are the main disaster areas, and the Greater Khingan Range and Daqing regions are the next ones. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on climatic characteristics and assessment methods of high temperature weather in Jilin province Ling-ling JI,Zhu-xiang XI,Zhuo CHEN,Yu-xi LIU 2020, 36 (3):  49-54.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.007 Abstract ( 311 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (872KB) ( 117 )   Save Using the daily maximum temperature data of 50 stations in Jilin province from 1951 to 2018, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of high temperature weather in Jilin province were analyzed by means of climate tendency rate, anomaly accumulation, gray correlation degree and normal distribution.The comprehensive index of high temperature process, index of high temperature process evaluation and index of climate recurrence period were established.The results show that in recent 68 years, the annual average number of high temperature days in Jilin province has an increasing trend, with 0.04 d per decade.The number of high temperature in Jilin province demonstrates its change feature in different period of time.Less number of the high temperatures occurred during 1959 to 1996 whereas more number of the high temperatures happened during 1951-1958 and 1997-2018.The high temperature weather in Jilin province mainly occurs in mid-June to mid-august, with the most in late July and more in early August.The western part of Jilin province is a high-temperature area.The average number of high-temperature days decreases from west to east of Jilin province.This paper classifies the high temperature process and gives an evaluation index of grade and climate recurrence period.For the high temperature process, the comprehensive index evaluation index and each sub-item evaluation index can be used to evaluate.It is convenient to apply in decision-making operation. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis of main meteorological factors influencing winter traffic accidents in Liaoning expressway based on data mining processing Yi LIN,Yu ZHAO,Qian LI,Dong-lei MA,Guang-mei ZHANG,Qiang MA,Lan LI,Fan ZHAO 2020, 36 (3):  55-63.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.008 Abstract ( 154 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (1147KB) ( 161 )   Save Using the records of winter expressway accidents occurring in Liaoning province and the corresponding multi-factor weather observational data from 2014 to 2016, the spatial distribution characteristics of expressway accidents influenced by meteorological conditions were analyzed.Two-step clustering method was used first in data mining analysis processing to determine the number of winter weather types in Liaoning province, and then the cluster analysis of the meteorological data was performed using K-means method.The random forest method was used to construct an expressway traffic accident classification model for different weather types, and finally, the characteristic importance of meteorological factors in the model was analyzed.The results show that the number of expressway accidents influenced by meteorological conditions is the highest in the southern Liaoning province, followed by the western area, and numbers in the eastern and northern area are relatively low.The winter weather in Liaoning province can be divided into four types.According to the data structure of meteorological factors, the weather characteristics are as follows:precipitation occurring on the day, on the previous day, cold and dry, and warm and humid.The accident rate of weather types with obvious precipitation characteristics exceeds 70%, and the one with cooling and warming weather types is about 20%.The random forest method has high classification accuracy for the two weather types, i.e., precipitation occurring on the day and cold and dry types.The generalization ability of the model is better.The characteristic importance parameters of meteorological factors for the four weather types are significantly different.The surface temperature factor has a greater significance, occupying the first place in the high-incidence weather types, and the third place in the humid warm weather type. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Simulation study on the influence of insoluble aerosol on the dispersion of warm cloud droplet spectrum in boundary layer Shang WU,Yan LI,Su-ying YANG,Zhi-jie TIAN,Zhi-qiang ZHANG,Yue DENG,Zhi-xian WU 2020, 36 (3):  64-71.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.009 Abstract ( 131 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (2325KB) ( 285 )   Save Based on the one-dimensional MISTRA (MIcrophysical STRAtus) boundary layer cloud model, the influence of ammonium sulfate aerosol with insoluble core on the microphysical characteristics of the boundary layer warm cloud was simulated.The turbulence energy flux in the boundary layer is an important factor affecting the development of warm clouds.The liquid water content, supersaturation and cloud droplet spectrum dispersion in the cloud increase with the height in the cloud.The standard deviation of cloud droplet spectrum is the main factor affecting the variation of cloud droplet spectrum dispersion.In the warm cloud development stage, the insoluble core will increase the supersaturation in the cloud, which will cause the cloud droplet spectrum widening to large scale end and small scale end.The standard deviation of the cloud droplet spectrum will increase, and the cloud droplet spectrum dispersion will increase with time.In the warm cloud weakening stage, the insoluble core will cause the cloud droplet number concentration of the large-scale end of the cloud to decrease, the cloud droplet spectrum becomes narrower, the standard deviation becomes smaller, the characteristics of decreasing dispersion of cloud droplet spectrum are weakened. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study of carbon dioxide flux characteristics over central urban area in Shanghai Xing ZHI,Xiang-yu AO 2020, 36 (3):  72-79.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.010 Abstract ( 167 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (2877KB) ( 55 )   Save Based on the eddy covariance turbulent flux data for a whole year from December 2012 to November 2013 in central urban area (Xujiahui) of Shanghai, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and annual emissions were analyzed.The results show that the Xujiahui central urban area is the source of CO2 flux.The diurnal variations of CO2 are typically characterized by two peaks, consistent with the traffic rush hour patterns.The CO2 flux in winter is smaller than that in the other seasons, which is more significant in morning traffic peak time.Moreover, the morning peak traffic effect in weekends is obviously less than that in weekdays, and it shows a lagging trend.The spatial variation patterns of CO2 flux are mainly determined by the surface characteristics.Due to the large fraction of commercial buildings and major roads, the CO2 flux in the daytime of summer is much larger than that in the other seasons.The total annual CO2 emission from the neighborhood around the flux tower is about 44.5 kg/(m2·a), which is higher than that in other cities worldwide due to the relatively late observational period, low vegetation coverage, and the more surrounding of high-rise buildings and major roads. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Spatio-temporal variation of climate comfort degree in Qinhuangdao during 1966-2018 Jing XU,Xian-mei LU,Zhi-gang LIU,Jin-mei SONG 2020, 36 (3):  80-86.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.011 Abstract ( 352 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (682KB) ( 219 )   Save Based on meteorological data during 1966-2018, the variation of climate comfort degree (CCD) in Qinhuangdao over the past 53 years was analyzed using the methods of climate comfort evaluation and trend analysis.The results show that the change trends of CCDs in the northern mountainous area, the central plain and the southeastern coastal areas in Qinhuangdao are generally consistent, and present some spatial differences.In general, Qinhuangdao features mainly comfortable to cool climate.The CCDs of comfort and relative comfort levels account for 47% to 49%, and that of cold discomfort level accounts for 34% to 37%, and those of hot and hotter discomfort levels are rare.In the past 53 years, Qinhuangdao shows a warming trend in both summer and winter, and the warming range in winter is larger than that in summer.Meanwhile, the hot discomfort days have sharply increased, and the cold discomfort days have decreased year by year since the 1990s.The number of hot discomfort days increases with the decrease of altitude and latitude of the station, while the situation of the cold discomfort days is the opposite.In Qinhuangdao, the comfortable or relatively comfortable climate from May to October is suitable for tourism and recuperation, the slightly hot weather without intense heat in July and August is suitable for swimming in the sea, and the relative cold climate in March, April and November is suitable for mountain climbing.However, the cold and uncomfortable climate from December to February is not suitable for mass tourism, but is suitable for ice and snow tourism activities.Therefore, it can be thought that Qinhuangdao is suitable for tourism in all seasons, which provides a basis for tourism development and planning and for studying the impacts of climate change on tourism, and also provides life and travel weather service guidance for the recuperation people who come to Qinhuangdao known as "Qinhuangshanhai, Kangyangfudi". Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Climate characteristics and causes of heavy fog in Jinzhou from 1999 to 2018 Cui-yan ZHANG,Qi YAN,Xue BAI,Guang-mei ZHANG,Fang-lei LOU,Fu-ran ZHOU,Shu-ting CHANG 2020, 36 (3):  87-92.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.012 Abstract ( 251 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (3355KB) ( 89 )   Save Based on the conventional meteorological data and visibility observed by visibility meter, the climate characteristics and causes of heavy fog in Jinzhou area during 1999-2018 were investigated.The results show that the annual number of fog days in Jinzhou has 12-year, 6-year and 3-year cycles, and its climatological normal is 33 days.The typical fog process in Jinzhou area shows an obvious diurnal variation, and is mainly divided into weak low pressure trough type and weak high pressure type after rain according to weather classification.Before the fog occurs, T-Td is between 4-14 ℃, the wind speed is generally below 4 m·s-1, the southerly, the northerly and the static wind account for 50%, 38%, and 12%, respectively.During the fog development phase, T-Td is between 0 and 4 ℃, the average wind speed is 2.2 m·s-1, the southerly and the northerly winds account for 58% and 42%, respectively.During the dense fog phase, T-Td is between 0 and 2 ℃, the average wind speed is 1.9m/s, the southerly and the northerly winds account for 58% and 42%, respectively.However, during the fog weakening to the dissipating phase, T-Td is gradually rising and is over 8.1 ℃, the average wind speed is 3.3 m·s-1, and the northerly wind accounts for 58%.As the dense fog appears, temperature inversion and wet layer occur in the atmosphere. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Relationship between the area suffered agricultural flood disaster and rainstorm in Tangshan Meng WANG,Gui-qin GAO,Ai-jun WANG,li ZHANG,Xu-jiang WAN,Lei-wu YUAN 2020, 36 (3):  93-97.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.013 Abstract ( 179 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (761KB) ( 41 )   Save Using data of the annual planting area and the area suffered agricultural flood of each county from 1985 to 2014 provided by Tangshan Statistical Bureau, as well as daily precipitation data from 11 meteorological stations in Tangshan, the trend analysis and polynomial statistical regression were used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of agricultural flood disasters in Tangshan and their relationships with rainstorm.The results show that the area suffered flood disaster in Tangshan has a slight downward trend, though it cannot pass the significant test, which is consistent with the changing trend of the number of annual rainstorm days.The degrees of flood disasters in each county are mainly mild to moderate, accounting for 80% to 100% of the total number of flood disasters.The occurrence of flood disaster in Tangshan is related to the annual rainstorm (R = 0.78), though it cannot pass the significant test.The area of disaster is significantly correlated with the number of annual rainstorm days (R = 0.83, P < 0.01).Rainstorms in years with above medium level flood disaster have the following characteristics:average rainstorm days are 4-6 days, the number of heavy rainstorm days of 80% county stations is 0.7-1.5 days, and accumulated amount of 60% of rainstorm is more than 300 mm.In addition, factors such as regional planting structure, topography and water system distribution are also important aspects causing the occurrence of flood disasters. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

Scientific Notes

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Effects of climate change on cooling and heating energy consumption of buildings with different energy-saving levels in Tianjin Yue-hao CHEN,Mei-ling SUN,Jing-fu CAO,Ming-cai LI,Rui-xue ZHANG,Fan-chao MENG 2020, 36 (3):  98-105.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.014 Abstract ( 161 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (814KB) ( 64 )   Save Based on the hourly data of ground meteorological observation in Tianjin from 1961 to 2017, the heating and cooling energy consumption (CEC) of office buildings, and the heating energy consumption (HEC) of residential buildings with different energy-saving levels were simulated by TRNSYS software.On this basis, the impacts of climate change on energy consumption of buildings with different energy-saving levels in Tianjin were quantitatively evaluated.The results show that temperature increases significantly and solar radiation decreases during the heating and cooling periods.As a result, the HEC and CEC of office and residential buildings decreases obviously and increases slightly during 1961 to 2017, respectively, indicating that the influence of climate change on the HEC is larger than on the CEC.With the improvement of energy-saving level of buildings, both the HEC and CEC show a decreasing trend, especially significant for the HEC.Compared with the one- to three-step residential buildings, the HEC of the four-stage energy saving buildings decreases 53.56%, 50.13% and 21.25%, respectively.Thus, the impact of energy-saving levels on energy consumption of buildings should be taken into account for new buildings and energy efficiency renovations of existing buildings, and upgrading and reconstruction should be conducted according to actual energy demand.In addition, the increasing of the energy-saving level in buildings will promote the variations of the HEC and CEC decreasing with warming, indicating that the sensitivity of building energy consumption to climate change is gradually weakening.Therefore, the increasing of energy-saving level in buildings can play a better role in dealing with climate change and reduce the building energy use in the future. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Forecasting of Ha'ni cloud sea landscape in Yuanjiang county of Yunnan province based on multiple models Sheng DING,Wei DUAN,Yong ZHU,Gang LI 2020, 36 (3):  106-112.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.03.015 Abstract ( 145 )   HTML ( 8 )   PDF (752KB) ( 34 )   Save For promoting the development of local tourism industry and satisfying the demand for tourism meteorological services, the three-dimensional (3D) meteorological observation and the forecast experiments for the Ha'ni cloud sea landscape in Yuanjiang county were conducted.Based on the meteorological observation data from the weather station in the studied area during 2016-2019, the dichotomous prediction experiments for the cloud sea landscape appearing or not were carried out by using the empirical forecasting, the logistics regression, the support vector machine (SVM), the decision tree analysis and other analysis methods.The results show that the overall forecast accuracies of the training samples based on the different prediction methods are between 74.3% and 82.2% with a small difference, but the prediction indicator of the traditional empirical prediction based on the research background of the cloud sea mechanism is of a definite physical meaning.With the accumulation of the prediction experience, the TS score of empirical prediction i.e.54.8 in 2019 is better than that i.e.46.0 in 2016-2018, and also better than that based on the statistical learning algorithm using only local data.In addition, the TS scores for the test sample employing the other several learning forecast methods are lower than that for the training sample.The occurrence of cloud sea landscape requires the coordination of both water vapor and atmospheric static stability.Besides, the collected 3D climate data from the local cloud sea observatory is beneficial for improving the forecast index system, increasing forecast accuracy and promoting the development of local tourism industry. Figures and Tables | References | Related Articles | Metrics