Simulation and prediction of future extreme precipitation in Fujian province under SSPs scenarios

Based on the daily precipitation data under the SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) emission scenarios from the latest generation CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) global climate models and high-resolution daily grid observation data, the performance of the models was evaluated using the Taylor diagrams and Quantile-Mapping method.Eight extreme precipitation indices for the near (2021-2040), middle (2051-2070), and late (2081-2100) periods of the 21st century were calculated and analyzed under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The results show that in the reference period (1991-2010), after the Quantile-Mapping method correction, the simulation of each extreme precipitation index is closer to the observation, and the spatial correlation coefficient, root mean square error, and standard deviation are greatly improved.For each stage of the 21st century, both the annual cumulative precipitation (Prcptot) and the number of extreme rainstorm days (R50mm) in Fujian province are higher than those during the reference period (1991-2010), and larger the increase in the later stage under the high emission scenario.The number of precipitation days larger than 10mm (R10mm) and the number of extremely heavy rain days (R20mm) increases and decreases in different ways.R10mm shows a decreasing trend in the northeastern part of Fujian province and an increasing trend in most other areas.R20mm shows a decreasing trend in the northwestern part of Fujian province in the recent 21st century under SSP2-4.5 scenarios, but an increasing trend in other scenarios and time periods.The maximum 1 d precipitation (Rx1day), maximum consecutive 5 d precipitation (Rx5day) and daily precipitation intensity index (SDII), which represent the precipitation intensity, will all increase in the future, and the increase rate in coastal areas is higher than that in inland areas.The continuous dryness index (CDD) increases in most areas, which indicates that the extreme precipitation and continuous dryness will increase together in Fujian province in the future, and the probability of extreme drought and flood events will increase significantly.