SSPs情景下福建省未来极端降水的模拟与预估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2023.01.004

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data under the SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) emission scenarios from the latest generation CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) global climate models and high-resolution daily grid observation data, the performance of the models was evaluated using the Taylor diagrams and Quantile-Mapping method.Eight extreme precipitation indices for the near (2021-2040), middle (2051-2070), and late (2081-2100) periods of the 21st century were calculated and analyzed under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The results show that in the reference period (1991-2010), after the Quantile-Mapping method correction, the simulation of each extreme precipitation index is closer to the observation, and the spatial correlation coefficient, root mean square error, and standard deviation are greatly improved.For each stage of the 21st century, both the annual cumulative precipitation (Prcptot) and the number of extreme rainstorm days (R50mm) in Fujian province are higher than those during the reference period (1991-2010), and larger the increase in the later stage under the high emission scenario.The number of precipitation days larger than 10mm (R10mm) and the number of extremely heavy rain days (R20mm) increases and decreases in different ways.R10mm shows a decreasing trend in the northeastern part of Fujian province and an increasing trend in most other areas.R20mm shows a decreasing trend in the northwestern part of Fujian province in the recent 21st century under SSP2-4.5 scenarios, but an increasing trend in other scenarios and time periods.The maximum 1 d precipitation (Rx1day), maximum consecutive 5 d precipitation (Rx5day) and daily precipitation intensity index (SDII), which represent the precipitation intensity, will all increase in the future, and the increase rate in coastal areas is higher than that in inland areas.The continuous dryness index (CDD) increases in most areas, which indicates that the extreme precipitation and continuous dryness will increase together in Fujian province in the future, and the probability of extreme drought and flood events will increase significantly.

Key words: SSPs scenarios, Extreme precipitation events, Climate change, Climate projection

CLC Number:

P467

Zhen-fei TANG,Ting YANG,Xiao-chen CHEN,Xin-xin LI,Xin LIN,Fen HE,Zhen-zhi WEN. Simulation and prediction of future extreme precipitation in Fujian province under SSPs scenarios[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(1): 26-36.

Figures/Tables 12

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序号	模式简称	研究机构	分辨率
1	BCC-CSM2-MR	中国气象局国家气候中心(BCC)	1.125°×1.125°
2	EC-Earth3-Veg	欧盟地球系统模式联盟	0.7°×0.7°
3	GFDL-ESM4	美国大气与海洋管理局地球物理流体动力实验室(GFDL)	1.0°×1.25°
4	IPSL-CM6A-LR	法国皮埃尔—西蒙拉普斯研究所(IPSL)	1.26°×2.5°
5	MRI-ESM2-0	日本气象研究所(MRI)	1.125°×1.125°
6	NorESM2-MM	挪威气候中心(NCC)	0.94°×1.25°

指数名称	代码	定义	单位
年累积降水量	Prcptot	日降水量≥ 1 mm的年累积降水量	mm
大雨日数	R10mm	日降水量≥ 10 mm的总日数	d
极端大雨日数	R20mm	日降水量≥ 20 mm的总日数	d
极端暴雨日数	R50mm	日降水量≥50 mm的总日数	d
最大1日降水量	RX1day	最大日降水量	mm
最大5日降水量	RX5day	最大连续5 d降水量	mm
日降水强度	SDII	日降水总量与降水日数之比	mm·d^-1
持续干燥指数	CDD	日降水量＜1 mm的最长连续日数	d

指数	SSP2-4.5			SSP5-8.5
指数	2021—2040年	2051—2070年	2081—2100年	2021—2040年	2051—2070年	2081—2100年
Prcptot/(%)	5.26	7.02	10.25	6.43	7.21	17.46
R10mm/d	-0.16	0.69	2.32	0.84	0.92	3.17
R20mm/d	0.28	0.82	1.61	0.77	0.66	2.98
R50mm/d	0.50	0.67	0.86	0.42	0.76	2.19
RX1day/(%)	18.46	18.52	24.01	16.49	19.81	46.60
RX5day/(%)	18.29	18.59	19.79	13.80	16.99	37.19
SDII/(%)	3.52	5.79	7.60	3.50	6.02	17.29
CDD/(%)	3.05	4.17	2.26	0.54	3.44	3.65

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Simulation and prediction of future extreme precipitation in Fujian province under SSPs scenarios

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