Abstract: In order to carry out regional lightning disaster risk assessment scientifically and effectively,a fuzzy comprehensive assessment scheme of regional lightning disaster risk based on improved analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) was proposed based on the analysis of domestic and international disaster loss assessment methods,especially the relevant technical standards and specifications of lightning disaster risk assessment.The improved three scale analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate weights of assessment index,avoiding the consistency test,and improving the convenience and accuracy of constructing judgment matrix.The membership degree of risk grade of assessment index was determined by using triangular arithmetic membership function; and the consistency of the membership degree determination methods of risk grade of different assessment indexes was realized.The evaluation results and risk grades were determined according to the maximum membership degree principle,which accounts for the fuzziness and uncertainty of lightning disaster and improves the scientific robustness of risk assessment.By implementing this methodology with lightning positioning data,radar meteorological observations,on-site field investigations,and regional planning documentation,a comprehensive lightning disaster risk assessment was carried for Hebei Baoding Lianchi High-tech Industrial Development Zone.The results are consistent with those obtained by using the current technical standards for lightning disaster risk assessment,which confirms the feasibility and reliability of the method.

Key words: Lightning disaster, Risk assessment, Improved analytic hierarchy process (IAHP), Fuzzy comprehensive assessment, Membership function