SSPs情景下福建省未来极端降水的模拟与预估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2023.01.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于最新一代CMIP6全球气候模式模拟的历史和未来SSPs排放情景下的逐日降水数据和高分辨率逐日格点观测数据, 采用泰勒图和分位数映射法评估订正模式性能, 计算并分析SSP2—4.5和SSP5—8.5情景下福建省21世纪近期(2021—2040年)、中期(2051—2070年)和末期(2081—2100年)8个极端降水指数的变化。结果表明: 在参照期(1991—2010年)经过分位数映射法偏差订正后, 各极端降水指数模式模拟与观测更加接近, 其空间相关系数、均方根误差和标准差的模拟性能都大幅提升。21世纪各个阶段, 福建省年累积降水量(Prcptot)、极端暴雨日数(R50mm)均多于参照期, 且越到后期、高排放情景下增幅越大。大于10 mm的降水日数(R10mm)和极端大雨日数(R20mm)则是增减各异, R10mm表现为福建东北部减少、其他大部分地区增加, R20mm表现为SSP2—4.5情景下21世纪近期福建西北部减少、而其他情景和时段均增加。表征降水强度的最大1 d降水量(Rx1day)、最大连续5 d降水量(Rx5day)和日降水强度指数(SDII)在未来全部增加, 且沿海地区增幅高于内陆地区。持续干燥指数(CDD)在大部分情形下增加, 表明福建省未来将出现极端降水和持续干燥共同增加的状况, 极端旱涝事件发生的概率将显著增大。

关键词: SSPs情景, 极端降水, 气候变化, 气候预估

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation data under the SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) emission scenarios from the latest generation CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) global climate models and high-resolution daily grid observation data, the performance of the models was evaluated using the Taylor diagrams and Quantile-Mapping method.Eight extreme precipitation indices for the near (2021-2040), middle (2051-2070), and late (2081-2100) periods of the 21st century were calculated and analyzed under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The results show that in the reference period (1991-2010), after the Quantile-Mapping method correction, the simulation of each extreme precipitation index is closer to the observation, and the spatial correlation coefficient, root mean square error, and standard deviation are greatly improved.For each stage of the 21st century, both the annual cumulative precipitation (Prcptot) and the number of extreme rainstorm days (R50mm) in Fujian province are higher than those during the reference period (1991-2010), and larger the increase in the later stage under the high emission scenario.The number of precipitation days larger than 10mm (R10mm) and the number of extremely heavy rain days (R20mm) increases and decreases in different ways.R10mm shows a decreasing trend in the northeastern part of Fujian province and an increasing trend in most other areas.R20mm shows a decreasing trend in the northwestern part of Fujian province in the recent 21st century under SSP2-4.5 scenarios, but an increasing trend in other scenarios and time periods.The maximum 1 d precipitation (Rx1day), maximum consecutive 5 d precipitation (Rx5day) and daily precipitation intensity index (SDII), which represent the precipitation intensity, will all increase in the future, and the increase rate in coastal areas is higher than that in inland areas.The continuous dryness index (CDD) increases in most areas, which indicates that the extreme precipitation and continuous dryness will increase together in Fujian province in the future, and the probability of extreme drought and flood events will increase significantly.

Key words: SSPs scenarios, Extreme precipitation events, Climate change, Climate projection

中图分类号:

P467

唐振飞,杨婷,陈笑晨,李欣欣,林昕,何芬,温珍治. SSPs情景下福建省未来极端降水的模拟与预估[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2023, 39(1): 26-36.

Zhen-fei TANG,Ting YANG,Xiao-chen CHEN,Xin-xin LI,Xin LIN,Fen HE,Zhen-zhi WEN. Simulation and prediction of future extreme precipitation in Fujian province under SSPs scenarios[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(1): 26-36.

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序号	模式简称	研究机构	分辨率
1	BCC-CSM2-MR	中国气象局国家气候中心(BCC)	1.125°×1.125°
2	EC-Earth3-Veg	欧盟地球系统模式联盟	0.7°×0.7°
3	GFDL-ESM4	美国大气与海洋管理局地球物理流体动力实验室(GFDL)	1.0°×1.25°
4	IPSL-CM6A-LR	法国皮埃尔—西蒙拉普斯研究所(IPSL)	1.26°×2.5°
5	MRI-ESM2-0	日本气象研究所(MRI)	1.125°×1.125°
6	NorESM2-MM	挪威气候中心(NCC)	0.94°×1.25°

指数	SSP2-4.5			SSP5-8.5
指数	2021—2040年	2051—2070年	2081—2100年	2021—2040年	2051—2070年	2081—2100年
Prcptot/(%)	5.26	7.02	10.25	6.43	7.21	17.46
R10mm/d	-0.16	0.69	2.32	0.84	0.92	3.17
R20mm/d	0.28	0.82	1.61	0.77	0.66	2.98
R50mm/d	0.50	0.67	0.86	0.42	0.76	2.19
RX1day/(%)	18.46	18.52	24.01	16.49	19.81	46.60
RX5day/(%)	18.29	18.59	19.79	13.80	16.99	37.19
SDII/(%)	3.52	5.79	7.60	3.50	6.02	17.29
CDD/(%)	3.05	4.17	2.26	0.54	3.44	3.65

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