主办单位:中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号:ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号:CN 21-1531/P

气象与环境学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 95-102.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2023.04.012

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于新气候态背景的中国东北地区气候变化评估与预测研究

张萌萌1(),赵春雨2,3,房一禾2,3,4,*(),李经纬2,林益同2,于怡秋2,张玮琦5   

  1. 1. 辽宁省气象服务中心, 辽宁沈阳 110166
    2. 沈阳区域气候中心, 辽宁沈阳 110166
    3. 东北冷涡研究重点开放实验室, 辽宁沈阳 110166
    4. 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所, 辽宁沈阳 110166
    5. 沈阳市苏家屯区气象局, 辽宁沈阳 110179
  • 收稿日期:2020-10-11 出版日期:2023-08-28 发布日期:2023-09-23
  • 通讯作者: 房一禾 E-mail:957693495@qq.com;49954570@qq.com
  • 作者简介:张萌萌, 女, 1994年生, 工程师, 主要从事气候动力学方面的研究, E-mail: 957693495@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(42005037);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J022);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J008);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2018-018);辽宁省自然科学基金科学技术计划—省博士科研启动基金计划项目(2019-BS-214);中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-027);中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所开放基金项目(2020SYIAE08);中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所开放基金项目(2020SYIAEZD5)

Assessment and prediction of climate change in Northeast China based on new climate state background

Mengmeng ZHANG1(),Chunyu ZHAO2,3,Yihe FANG2,3,4,*(),Jingwei LI2,Yitong LIN2,Yiqiu YU2,Weiqi ZHANG5   

  1. 1. Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Service Center, Shenyang 110016, China
    2. Regional Climate Center of Shenyang, Shenyang 110016, China
    3. Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110016, China
    4. Institute of Atmospheric Environment, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110016, China
    5. Meteorological Service in Sujiatun District of Shenyang, Shenyang 110179, China
  • Received:2020-10-11 Online:2023-08-28 Published:2023-09-23
  • Contact: Yihe FANG E-mail:957693495@qq.com;49954570@qq.com

摘要:

选用1981—2020年中国东北地区199站气象资料,将1981—2010年与1991—2020年作为气候态的气温、降水、大气环流场及海温场进行比较,并分析气候平均值的改变对气候评价、气候变化和气候预测的影响。结果表明:新、旧气候态下,东北地区的气温、降水、大气环流及海温场均有明显变化,且环流和海温场的变化与气温和降水变化相对应。新气候态下,东北地区的春季、秋季、冬季降水量增加,夏季降水量减少,平均气温均升高。冬季高纬阻塞高压和西太平洋副热带高压强度增强,东亚大槽强度减弱,与冬季气温升高相对应;夏季鄂霍次克海阻塞高压和西太平洋副热带高压减弱,与东北夏季降水减少相一致。全球海温总体增暖,而南半球中高纬地区变冷,夏季海温差值在赤道太平洋地区表现为西正东负的分布特征,与夏季东北气温升高相一致。

关键词: 气候平均值, 气候评价, 气候变化

Abstract:

Using 199 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1981 to 2020, the temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation field and sea surface temperature (SST) field from 1981 to 2010 were compared with those from 1991 to 2020, and the influence of the change of climate mean values on climate evaluation, climate change and climate prediction was analyzed.The results show that there are clear changes in temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation and SST field in northeast China under new and old climate states, and the changes of circulation and SST field correspond to the changes of temperature and precipitation.Under the new climate state, the precipitation in spring, autumn and winter increases, while in summer it decreases.The average temperature increases.The atmospheric circulation field, the high latitude blocking high pressure and the West Pacific Subtropical high pressure increase in winter, and the East Asia trough weakens, corresponding to the increase in winter temperature.In summer, the Okhotsk Sea blocking high pressure and the Western Pacific Subtropical High pressure weaken, which corresponds to the decrease of summer precipitation in Northeast China.As for the SST field, the global SST is generally increasing, while those in the middle and high latitudes in the southern Hemisphere are decreasling.The summer SST difference in the equatorial Pacific region is positive in the west and negative in the east, which is consistent with the rise of temperature in summer in the northeast.

Key words: Climatic average, Climate assessment, Climate change

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